The Transcendent Candidate

After probing several exit polls from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, I would venture to say that examining these statistics in detail is the equivalent of political cocaine. It really is quite addictive, and somewhat overwhelming. Initially, I was going to attempt to single out one crucial issue that may have resonated with the voting public and therefore propelled Obama to victory. However, there really were a myriad of forces at work in this election, including the residue of the previous administration as well as the transcendent nature of the Obama candidacy. Therefore, I decided to simply compare exit polls from 2004 and 2008 and provide some random musings on these numbers.

Of course, there were different variables at play in 2004, as Kerry was running against an incumbent, albeit an unpopular one who’s approval rating had already begun to decline. While the circumstances were obviously different, there is much to learn from these numbers.

Obama enjoyed a five-point advantage over Kerry amongst male and female voters, garnering 49% of the male vote and an impressive 56% of the female vote. There was an increase of four points to 41% amongst white men and a modest two-point gain to 46% in regard to white women.

Also in reference to the racial dynamic, Obama earned 95% of the African-American vote, which represented a seven-point increase over Kerry in 2004. While the Democratic candidate usually wins the vast majority of this group, it should be noted that along with this significant increase there was also a much larger African-American turnout at the polls in 2008. In addition, the breakdown of the Latino vote is enlightening. The Republicans had actively courted the Latino vote in 2004, and this effort prove to be successful as Bush improved from 35% in 2000 to 44% in 2004. However, this was quickly reversed in 2008, as McCain’s support among Latinos fell a staggering 13 points from Bush in 2004 to 31%. At the same time, Obama won 67% of the Latino vote as compared to Kerry’s 53% in 2004.

Some additional categories of note include the youth vote, where Obama earned 66%, a 12 -point increase over Kerry in 2004. While the generational divide between the two candidates certainly explains the disparity, the numbers remain significant, although the turnout of the 18-29 demographic was not as profound as expected. Also, among voters who reported income of more than $100,000 or more annually, Obama made surprising headway as he split this group evenly with McCain. This 49% is impressive when you consider that Kerry was at 41% in 2004.

Finally, this brings us to the independent voters, whom I believe were the most important group in the electorate. Because of the consistent partisanship in voting on both sides, self-described independents turned out to be a critical voting bloc to curry favor with. Obama claimed this group in convincing fashion, collecting 52% compared to McCain’s 44%. These numbers are more significant because of the larger turnout of independent voters than in previous elections.

Again, considering factors such as Iraq and the economy and how the electorate perceived them, an Obama victory was likely inevitable regardless of what the Republicans may have done. I still maintain that Obama is a generational candidate who has transcended many traditional political norms and realities. However, there remains a wealth of information to be found in the examination of polling data.

The polling data in question comes courtesy of observationalism